Why Fentanyl May Decide the Success of the Trump–Xi Meeting

As President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare to meet in South Korea, a 20% “fentanyl tariff” has emerged as one of the most contentious issues on the table. Beijing is eager to reduce the additional duties, levied on many Chinese goods since this February.

Daojiong Zha, a professor of international political economy at Peking University’s School of International Studies, shared his views on fentanyl ahead of the summit.

The Trump administration, within days of its inauguration, imposed two rounds of 10% tariffs on certain Chinese goods in a bid to address the domestic opioid crisis and pressure China to curb exports of precursor chemicals—active ingredients used to manufacture fentanyl.

Justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which was invoked to address a national emergency caused by illegal drugs including fentanyl, the 20% tariff was added on top of existing trade duties. Since then, Beijing has repeatedly tried to reduce the surcharge, aiming to cut it back to 10%.

This week’s summit—the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since Osaka in 2019—will address the issue.

In a small but notable move, China’s National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) on Oct. 12 revoked six approvals for fentanyl-based transdermal pain-management patches manufactured and marketed by Janssen, part of Johnson & Johnson.

In the United States, opioid overdose deaths have increased sharply since 2013. Provisional CDC data indicate that 72,776 people died from overdoses involving synthetic opioids in 2023—a slight decrease from 2022 but still significantly higher than figures from a decade ago. Fentanyl is involved in roughly 69% of all U.S. drug-overdose deaths.

Prof. Zha has written and spoken extensively on the topic. In a June article in Nature, he said his motivation was to address what he calls a “lack of presentation of China’s fentanyl/opioids governance.” This absence of Chinese perspectives, he argued, makes international debate one-sided.

Fentanyl manufacturing and drug use in China have also mirrored U.S. and international trends: moving from conventional narcotics to synthetic drugs, also known as new psychoactive substances. Data from the 2024 report by China’s National Narcotics Control Committee show that the number of registered drug users rose from 860,000 in 2000 to 2.47 million in 2016, and to 7.47 million in 2024 (Ministry of Public Security, Annual Report on Narcotics Control).

“For both China and the United States, there is no justification for rhetoric or policy that holds the other responsible for the fentanyl-related predicament—whether stemming from negligence or perceived intent,” Zha wrote.

He also told me during a Sept. 22 interview that Chinese chemical makers are not making meaningful profits from fentanyl manufacturing, giving Beijing clear incentives to crack down on fentanyl and other synthetic drugs.

Both sides, he said, need to come to the negotiating table and begin working together “either in aggregate terms or on specific issue areas covering medicinal sciences, pharmaceutical regulation, law-enforcement issues, etc.”

“Both China and the United States stand a chance to enhance their soft-power attraction through setting an example for the rest of the world,” he added.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said the Xi-Trump summit will provide guidance on issues of common concern, adding that Beijing is willing to work with the United States to achieve positive results.

Whether Trump agrees to lower the fentanyl tariff to 10% in exchange for China’s concession to purchase American soybeans, the outcome will largely be decided at the Thursday’s negotiations between the two leaders.

Prof. Zha pointed to some reports that Washington’s intention to lower the fentanyl tariff to 10%, and China has done its part under the International Narcotics Control framework. the goal is “achievable”.

Thanks for reading,

Brian

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